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November Housing Report
In Riverside County:
Notice of Defaults-Over the last 120 days=13296 / For Oct. 3872
Notice of Trustee Sales Currently Scheduled=15578 / For Oct. 4377
Actual Trustee Sale-Over the last 120 days=6600 / For Oct. 1997 Sold to 3rd party= 496
In San Bernardino County:
Notice of Defaults-Over the last 120 days=10282 / For Oct. 3167
Notice of Trustee Sales Currently Scheduled=12618 / For Oct. 3416
Actual Trustee Sale-Over the last 120 days=5404 / For Oct. 1633 Sold to 3rd party= 300
Commercial, Apartments, Industrial, Agriculture & Land/ last 120 days
Riv. NOD=407 NOS=242 Sale=267 (The largest number is land)
SB. NOD=319 NOS=188 Sale=211 (The largest number is land)Source, Foreclosure Radar
Foreclosure Radar reports;
Banks increased their Bank Owned (REO) inventory slightly, by taking back 22.24 percent more properties than the preceding month, while REO resale’s declined. The decline in REO resale’s is not unexpected as REO inventories have declined to a point that is insufficient to meet market demand.
The majority of loans foreclosed on in October 2009 were originally made between January 2005 and
December 2007.
Commentary
As a stakeholder in the non-profit collaborative HOCIE (Housing Opportunity Collaborative of the Inland Empire), I have enjoyed the opportunity to attend several training sessions recently with Treasury, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. In addition, through several other reports, I have come to the conclusion that much of the challenges in the approval process of the Presidents HAMP modification program have a lot to do with consumers not being properly prepared prior to the submission of all of their paperwork. This fact, further underscores the necessity to encourage and promote consumer education in this arena and the promotion of the non-profit community which is available to serve this need.
It is extremely evident the Banks do not wish to foreclose. Since this is the case, we must assist them in preparing their borrowers to submit the most complete and detailed modification application possible using high quality origination practices known by many in the banking industry.
In my opinion, until this issue is aggressively addressed and the public is better prepared when dealing with their servicer, we will be delayed in the desired outcome of the program. Far too many are asking for help and their request must be reviewed regardless of its merit. This is placing those who are in need and who actually qualify for the available programs, in jeopardy.
The collaboration is made up of hard working dedicated individuals who are having to encounter a lack of trained professionals on the lenders side and in turn the lenders are having to deal with a consumer base who is contacting their lender directly without the assistance of a trained non-profit counselor, or otherwise. This was the common concern expressed at a recent training in Costa Mesa, CA. put on by the GSE’s and NeighborWorks.
Fraud Lowlights
An Orange County man has been sentenced to 11 years in prison for orchestrating two identity theft schemes in which he obtained personal information from hundreds of consumers and used the data in an attempt to fraudulently obtain $1.5 million from home-equity lines of credit and credit card accounts.
According to George S. Cardona, U.S. attorney for the Central District of California, Martin Quoc Pham of Garden Grove, Calif., was sentenced to 132 months in federal prison and ordered to pay $540,000 in restitution.
Home Staging
With foreclosures and the number of vacant homes on the market for sale on the rise, homeowners are becoming more vulnerable to fraudsters and scam artists. As a means of protecting homeowners from being exploited by fraudsters, a national home staging company is employing live-in caretakers.
According to Showhomes, with 56 franchises in 23 states, the company is seeing dramatic results with its method of employing qualified people as live-in caretakers to keep homes in show condition. The practice, according to the company, prevents squatting or taking possession and mitigates the potential for scams.
Training in all areas, especially fraud prevention is needed
Fraud continues to flourish in unstable metro areas in Arizona, Nevada, Southern California and Florida and is popping up in surprise locations like Bend, Ore., according to panelists at the SourceMedia Loan Modification Conference in Dallas.Ann Fulmer, vice president of business relations at Interthinx, said fraud is increasing in these markets among distressed borrowers through foreclosure rescue and loan mod scams. The industry is seeing illegal flipping of REO properties, false appraisals, tarnished broker price opinions and loan reductions in short sales. “There is no training in fraud recognition for servicers. They are pressed for time,” she told conference attendees.
Countrywide in the News
A federal judge rejected a request by Angelo Mozilo, the former CEO and founder of Countrywide Financial Corp., to dismiss a Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit accusing him of securities fraud and insider trading. Mr. Mozilo’s lawyer David Siegel called the court’s order “disappointing”.
Two years ago CFC’s shares were trading in the $40 range. By the time Bank of America bought the firm in the summer of 2008, its stock was trading as low as $3. Investors lost billions on CFC.
Sign of Things To Come?
Ohio’s attorney general is suing American Home Mortgage Servicing — a business controlled by vulture fund investor Wilbur Ross — accusing the company of what the state calls “incompetent and inadequate customer service
Bernanke Feels Pretty Good About the Signals
The recent pickup in the economy “reflects more than purely temporary factors” and continued moderate growth is likely, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech Monday, though constrained lending and weak labor market remain headwinds to robust growth. Inflation expectations haven’t responded to upward or downward pressures, he said, noting plenty of resource slack. Bernanke pledged that low-interest, loose monetary policies would continue for an extended period. In a follow-up Q&A, Bernanke said it’s “not obvious” that asset prices are out of line, at least inside the U.S., and that “we can never say never” on using interest rates to deflate bubbles, adding we won’t have a “real market-based financial system until it’s safe to let a financial firm fail.”
The Financial Services Forum Is At It Again
The idea of breaking up these large firms is gaining in popularity on the Hill. So much so, the powerful lobbying group of 18 of the World’s largest financial firms was at Barney Frank’s door asking him to reconsider this idea.
If history truly repeats itself, this idea that proved a useful tool after the Great Depression to reign in some of the power controlled by a few, will fall to the side, along with the once popular “cram down” legislation” idea.
In brief, the lenders position, is that size does not matter; it was the concentration in a particular segment of the market that mattered most and with their large size comes the ability to make major loans to customers. Their position claims that breaking them up into smaller firms means damage to the US economy in the long term.
Some on the Hill are asking how much more damage could possibly come beyond that which they have already created.
HUD ANNOUNCES RESTRAINT IN RESPA ENFORCEMENT FOR FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF NEW RULE
WASHINGTON - The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) today announced that for the first four months of 2010, the staff of the Mortgagee Review Board (MRB) will exercise restraint in enforcing new regulatory requirements under the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA), due to take full effect on January 1. The MRB instructed its staff to exercise such restraint in considering an action against FHA-approved lenders who have demonstrated that they are making a good faith effort to comply with RESPA’s new requirements.
Here is the new HUD-1: http://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/ramh/res/hud1.pdf
Here is the new Good Faith: http://www.hud.gov/content/releases/goodfaithestimate.pdf
Please note, this does not mean it does not go into effect on Jan. 1 2010. It simply means they are going to give the industry time to get used to it before they take aggressive action against those who fail to adhere to the new rules.
GMAC Say’s; “Hold On!”
GMAC Financial Services, while in the midst of talks with the Treasury Department regarding possible taxpayer bail out number three, relieved its current CEO and requested that no funds be issued until its new CEO was able to create his own financial plan.
The Fed’s Are Making It Mandatory, Temporarily, to Disclose Who Owns Your Mortgage
The Federal Reserve Board approved a temporary rule requiring that consumers be notified within 30 days when their mortgage loan has been sold or transferred to a new investor.
If the loan is purchased and Title is transferred, this rule applies, if only a partial interest is obtained, it does not. In example would be a partial interest in a mortgage backed security pool.
This information is critical to a borrower who is attempting to save their home through the modification process.
Trans Union Reports Delinquencies
Residential delinquencies increased for the 11th straight quarter, hitting an all-time high of 6.25% for the period ending Sept. 30, according to new figures released by TransUnion. Basing its findings on a random sample of 27 million credit files, the company found that Nevada leads the nation in delinquencies (14.5%) with Florida a somewhat close second with 13.3%. Year-over-year, mortgage delinquencies are up 58% and are expected to continue rising until the national job picture improves. The credit report agency defines delinquent as any loan where the borrower is 60 or more days past due. The Mortgage Bankers Association, which releases its delinquency figures on Thursday, defines delinquent as 30 days past due or more. According to National Mortgage News and the Quarterly Data Report, there are 60.5 million outstanding residential loans in the U.S. with a face value of $9.86 trillion.
Banks are simply not recording notices of default, the beginning of the foreclosure process and the reason are many.
Congressional Budget Office Executive Director Is Worried
“Federal debt held by the public will equal about 60 percent of GDP by the end of this fiscal year, the highest level since the early 1950s. As a result, further large deficits and increases in the debt will raise serious economic risks.” http://www.cbo.gov/aboutcbo/organization/od.htm
Most economist who follow history and support the current decisions, point to the fact we have had large deficits before in order to take care of our needs during a down turn in the economy. Those who express concern over the current decisions being made point out that we have become dependent on federal spending, even in good times and this is the key difference. Political will to say no, does not seem possible and therefore, the rate at which our deficit continues to grow is exceeding all previous estimates.
A Tale Of Two Cities
While no self sacrificing love story, this is a story of contrast and the Federal Reserve Presidents and Chiefs, differing opinions on how to deal with our apparent two economies. Many in the Federal Reserve feel strongly that our recovery is underway and will be well underway by mid 2010. Because of this they have become increasingly vocal in their concern over our artificially low interest rates. The main message is that we should not allow the pockets (The pockets, by and large, are the “Sand States,” or NV, FL, CA & AZ ) and their housing challenges to dictate policy for all.
In direct contrast to what Chairman of the Board Ben Bernanke had to say, Cleveland President, Sandra Pianalto, who moves into a voting slot on the Fed panel next year, told a group attending a conference in Ohio;
“Though we have seen some signs that the worst may be over, the housing industry is not out of the woods yet, nor is the broader economy,”
One cannot help but feel at a loss when so many of our most intelligent economic minds differ in their opinion and approach to today’s conditions. Recently, it was pointed out to me in a telephone conversation with Martin Andelman, a behavioral economist and well respected consultant, that the same headlines we are reading today about the economy occurred before, IN 1930!
The market crashed in 1929 and then rebounded over 50% in about a five month period. Sound familiar? We then went from a little over 8% unemployment to 25% and the market went down 86% by July of 1932.
Here are just three headlines from the year 1929 as printed in The Wall Street journal, that are eerily similar to what we are reading today;
K. Hogate, VP Dow, Jones & Co., decries “fetish of a corporation surplus” leading to current accumulation of billions of cash on corporate balance sheets which are “passively at work, but have no velocity.” Questions idea that large surpluses increase safety, suggesting they may instead lead to speculation and sloth. Calls for substantial distributions of “frozen” surplus cash to shareholders as means of helping to restore prosperity. J. Fayne of Hornblower & Weeks hails proposal.
R. Graham, VP Graham-Paige Motor, believes industrial depression has reached its end; belief is based on record savings banks deposits, low commodity inventories, and perception that “mental attitude of the general public is changing … people are becoming more optimistic and willing to spend money.”
A. Reynolds, Cont’l. Ill. Bank & Trust Chair., criticizes Fed. Reserve easy-money policy as ineffective in reviving business, says it may cause banks to buy bonds that have “not always turned out fortunately” in the past; “it is a serious question as to whether a commercial bank should be a large purchaser of such bonds.”
Disclaimer; I am not an economist and I am not attempting to capitalize on fear. I do find it fascinating to read our leaders points of view and draw comparisons to what was being stated in 1929 through 1930. Many highly intelligent individuals are widely reporting the economy is in full recovery and the same groups have others within their ranks that are not so sure. From the Federal Reserve, to the Office of the Comptroller, The Congressional Budget Office and many of our Economic Professors teaching our next round of leaders, we are hearing from them just how difficult it is to predict and control an economy that is so intertwined with the rest of the World.
Overspending no matter who is writing the checks cannot be sustained. The current economic numbers that are positive, are being reported that they are in direct correlation to the stimulus money infused. With zero political appetite to foreclose and the disconnect between what the American population expects from their leaders vs. the recognition of the origins of the financial resources required to provide said expectation, we seem to be on a fast track to additional correction.
Below is Lou Holtz Opinion, today it seems harsh, but I loved the fact that he believed in his players so much and offered no excuses for them;
“You aren’t entitled to anything. You don’t inherit anything. You get what
you earn – your position on the team. You’re treated like everybody else. You’re held
accountable for your actions. You understand that your decisions affect other people on
that team…There’s winners, there’s losers, and there’s competitiveness.”
Lou Holtz http://www.irishlegends.com/loubears/louholtzbio.htm
Good News! Goldman Sachs CEO is Sorry!
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc. facing criticism over its outsized profits and bonuses, will contribute $500 million to programs that help small businesses, the company said on Tuesday November 17. GS’s CEO Blankfein apologized for Goldman’s role in the financial crisis while speaking at an event in New York, according to Bloomberg News.
This seems to be Goldmans advisors (Including Buffet) way of attempting to do damage control after GS appeared less than sympathetic to the plight of the economy. Blankfein was quoted in London’s Sunday Times newspaper earlier this month as saying he is just a banker doing “God’s work” — stoking public anger even more.
Seriously Good News. Retail Results For Q3 Better Than Expected For Three Retailers
Target, TJ Max, and Saks Fifth Ave, all posted solid Q3 results Tuesday, a sign consumers have begun spending. TJMaxx parent TJX had the strongest results, with quarterly profit up 32% year-on-year. Target’s profits rose 18%, and Saks surprised analysts by earning a small profit after more than a year of straight losses. Meanwhile, credit card researchers Synovate Mail Monitor and Credit Karma said average credit-card balances increased during October. The average consumer carried $7,573 of credit-card debt, a 14% increase from $6,641 a month earlier. The numbers indicate the holiday spend may not be as disappointing as was originally expected. From NPR story. http://www.npr.org/
New York Times Reports Top Wall Street Firms Earning Record Profits
Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan Chase are making record profits according to Thomas P. DiNapoli, the Comptroller of the State of New York. In fact, if the profits continue, bonuses at the six banks could exceed the $162 billion paid 2007 — the year before the financial crisis hit stock markets.
In a demonstration of rare restraint, I will refrain from comment and simply offer a link to the story;
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/18/business/18wall.html?_r=1
Spending Trillions by the Feds, Can’t Go On…
The mortgage/housing market is being supported by the Fed’s continuing to purchase mortgage backed securities. The question many are asking is; “What happens when they stop?” The obvious answer is that we will all have to begin to pay this money back together and the first thing that will have to occur to attract investors back into the mortgage backed security market will be higher rates. Much higher.
Can it continue and should it continue? Is deficit spending since the 1970’s sustainable? If our apparent fix of a weak economy, that is a result over overspending, is to simply spend more in the hopes it will stimulate growth, I believe we need to reconsider our position.
The above graph illustrates a growth that began as fairly normal then accelerated with the advent of investment vehicles and advice of brilliant minds that allowed the top Wall Street investment firms to sell a mortgage more than once. Are we at the bottom? Many who report on this data, say no.
Demand for homes is high as is the affordability index. In fact, Dr. Husing (http://www.johnhusing.com/) reports the affordability index is at its highest point on record in the Inland Empire.
The unknown variable that will be interesting to witness, is how many will continue to pay on mortgages that are 100K to 400K upside down? Especially, as the reports of homebuyers around them begin to circulate that their new neighbors are in the same or superior home for half of their existing mortgage. And, these new neighbors report that they themselves had lost their home just two to three years earlier in a short sale.
The servicers are calling this potential decision to stop paying ones mortgage, the “moral hazard fear” and the bloggers and advocates of the consumer call this “just desert” for those who took a 100K mortgage instrument and leveraged it 40 to 1.
See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehman_Brothers,_Kuhn,_Loeb_Inc.#Subprime_mortgage_crisis
In conclusion
Things seem to be in a holding pattern. Foreclosures that do occur are being absorbed by a healthy appetite for well valued homes. Many are bracing for the now infamous Option-Arm market to hit over the next two and half years and we will see how the Feds react to it.
Deficit spending during times of crisis is not necessarily a bad thing and therefore I believe the Feds will continue to buy mortgage backed securities. The challenge is, that most agree this action should not be coming on the heels of deficit spending during what all considered to be good times.
The homeowner today needs to be aware of the exact rules of the modification plans available, so false hope will no longer be the norm and our communities will stop being placed on hold while inappropriate expectations rule the day. Teaching the public about all of their options and how to navigate through this complicated maze of rules and tax issues is the number one way to offer hope for the future and get our economy moving.
Regardless of your position or opinion of the current market conditions, the one thing I believe all of us share is the observation that the need for adult financial literacy, is a need that will be with us for the foreseeable future and to ignore this social need, will come at great cost to our communities.
Chris Sorensen
Founder, USA HELP, Inc. info [at] freehomeownershiphelp [dot] org
P.S. We’re available
The HELP program is available to speak to your group or business on the topics of home ownership and the impact of the current market conditions. How we got here, what’s next and what are the exact rules of the Make Home Affordable program. Understanding short sales and all of the subtleties that can affect the outcome, as well as the tax implications associated with debt cancellation.
Our buyer’s class takes a holistic approach and is extremely detailed and timely. A major benefit to our training is the clear understanding of the current underwriting guidelines for all programs available including, all Federal, State, County and Municipal programs currently available for public benefit.
Our class is lively and engaging and has received rave reviews from both the public and professionals alike.
Chris Miscellaneous